HSMAI Arizona - Hospitality Sales and Marketing Association International, Arizona Chapter

Industry Expert Provides 2007 Forecast

A January Meeting Recap by Sarah Bailey, Aramark Parks & Resorts

The Metro Phoenix is a great example of hospitality and tourism continuing to rebound and gain momentum. Robert Hayward with Warnick & Company provided us with an extremely positive recap of 2006 and a promising 2007. 2006 showed Rev Par leading the growth due to an increased ADR and a modest demand growth in all markets. This is the first year we've seen Rev Par exceed pre 9/11 levels on an inflated basis which is an excellent sign. Demand growth outpaced supply for the 4th year in a row.

The resort market showed moderate demand growth in 2006. Supply growth outpaced demand due to the opening of the Radisson Fort McDowell Resort & Casino resulting in a slight decrease in occupancy. Luxury resorts experience continued occupancy growth while the non-luxury resorts experienced below 2005 occupancy levels. The resort market also experienced strong ADR growth for the third year in a row and rate growth for both the luxury and non-luxury market.

No full service properties opened in 2006 and only the Renaissance Hotel Westgate is scheduled to open in 2007. The Phoenix economy remains strong and continues to diversify with Arizona continuing to be a desirable destination for transients and groups.

Rate growth should continue to strengthen in 2007 as occupancy reaches more stabilized levels and market compression becomes more evident. Current and planned product enhancements such as Westgate continue to enhance the destination appeal of the market. The health of the airline industry remains critical to the Phoenix market as we are considered a "fly in" market. The overall industry has seen enhanced profitability in the last three years and the evidence shows that we will continue to see growth in the future.

Thank you to Mr. Hayward, who has generously donated his time presenting this popular program for the past several years; to our host property, OrangeTree Golf Resort and to our additional sponsors, Richard Carmer with Picture Phoenix for the photo memories and to Bill Johnson, CSP for the LCD projector.

Raffle donors were: SuperShuttle/ExecuCar, Broadway Palm Dinner Theater, Hyatt Regency Scottsdale, Discovery Maps & Guides, GES Exposition Services, TBA Global Events, The Buttes, A Marriott Resort and the HSMAI Communications Committee.

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